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By the Numbers: Providence’s Non-Conference Slate Gives Bryan Hodgson an Early Test

Ralf Shockey

• 3 min read
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By the Numbers: Providence’s Non-Conference Slate Gives Bryan Hodgson an Early Test
David DelPoio/The Providence Journal

It is only late July, yet we are less than 100 days until the Providence Friars take the floor again in the 401 as the non-conference schedule has been released.

Providence will play 12 non-conference games and two exhibition contests in year one of the Bryan Hodgson era highlighted by two ACC teams in the preseason (Pittsburgh + Georgia Tech) followed by neutral site games against Nebraska from the Big Ten and Syracuse from the ACC. Additionally, the Maui Invitational featuring Arizona, BYU, Clemson, Colorado State, Ole Miss, VCU, and Washington. The Friars will square off against three of these opponents in November.

The full non-conference schedule is below:

  • Oct. 17 – vs. Pittsburgh (Exhibition) – Providence, R.I.
  • Oct. 24 – vs. Georgia Tech (Exhibition) – Providence, R.I.
  • Nov. 2 – vs. Maine – Providence, R.I.
  • Nov. 7 – vs. Nebraska (Hall of Fame Tip-Off) – Uncasville, Conn.
  • Nov. 10 or 11 – vs. Bryant – Providence, R.I.
  • Nov. 14 – vs. Colorado – Providence, R.I.
  • Nov. 17 – vs. Sacred Heart – Providence, R.I.
  • Nov. 23–25 – Maui Invitational – Lahaina, Hawaii
    • Opponents to be announced (Field: Arizona, BYU, Clemson, Colorado State, Ole Miss, VCU, Washington)
  • Dec. 1 – vs. Stonehill – Providence, R.I.
  • Dec. 5 – at Rhode Island – Kingston, R.I.
  • Dec. 8 – vs. Fairfield – Providence, R.I.
  • Dec. 19 – vs. Syracuse (Hall of Fame Series) – Boston, Mass. (TD Garden)

Quick Notes

  • Regular-season non-conference games: 12
  • Exhibition games: 2
  • Home games: 6
  • True road games: 1 (at Rhode Island)
  • Neutral-site games: Nebraska, three Maui Invitational games, Syracuse

While it is still only late July, the importance of the non-conference schedule cannot be understated. The non-conference schedule is all about preparing your team for the physicality and aggression of Big East conference play. The only way you can do that is by scheduling as many quality opponents as possible before conference play as this is what it seems Providence has done until we see the final win loss record of non-conference play.

Furthermore, from a glance, the most important games on Providence's non-conference schedule are (record and winning percentage from each team from last season):

  • Nebraska (28-7 / 80% winning percentage)
  • Colorado (17-16 / 51.5% winning percentage)
  • Maui Invitational (Three of: Arizona (36-3 / 92.3% winning percentage), BYU (23-12 / 65.7% winning percentage), Clemson (24-11 / 68.6% winning percentage), Colorado State (21-13 / 61.8% winning percentage), Ole Miss (15-20 / 42.9 winning percentage), VCU (28-8 / 77.8% winning percentage), Washington (16-17 / 48.5% winning percentage)
  • Syracuse (15-17 / 46.9% winning percentage)

Crunching the numbers, six of the 10 teams listed above not only made the NCAA tournament last season but also had a winning percentage above 60% in the previous season. These teams were Nebraska, Arizona, BYU, Clemson, Colorado State, and VCU as Arizona made the Final Four.

In terms of the Maui Invitational, four potential opponents posting winning percentages of at least 65% the previous season (Arizona, BYU, Clemson, VCU). Providence is guaranteed to face at least three of the seven Maui Invitational teams, meaning the Friars will play at least two opponents from this list that won 60% or more of their games last season, regardless of the bracket.

This should be very encouraging for Friar fans as last season Providence only faced four teams with a winning percentage over 60% as this season's non-conference slate includes six of 10 possible opponents that won at least 60% of their games the previous season, providing a stronger top end schedule.

Looking at the Big East teams who made the NCAA tournament last season in UConn, St. John's, and Villanova, all of them at least had a winning percentage of at least 70% as UConn led the way with 85% followed by St. John's with 81.1% and Villanova with 72.7%.

The formula is simple folks, the more quality opponents the better. And if Providence wants to get themselves back to where they think they belong in the upper echelon of the Big East they need to challenge themselves like how UConn and St. John's did last season with non-conference opponents as UConn played six NCAA tournament teams (three who made the Final Four) and St. John's played four NCAA tournament teams before the gauntlet of Big East play.

From the outside looking in, Providence at least needs to win nine if not 10 of the non-conference games if they want to find themselves within the top five of the conference. I am not going to say which ones we win and lose as a separate article will be coming at a later date previewing each game with a win loss record, but I am pretty confident that we will either finish 10-2 or 9-3 in non-conference play. Regardless of what record it ends up being, either of them would be a win in year one with Hodgson.

Make it happen Providence. 99 days and counting. LFG.